The manufacturer decided to reduce its range of products

The mass is so-called. 2009 will be a black year for manufacturers of mobile phones. Day after day, builders and analysts come to the same conclusion: global mobile sales will be down next year, for the first time since 2001. In the wake of Nokia, Samsung said Monday no longer exclude a downturn in the market. Yesterday, it was the Gartner research firm which anticipated a decline in sales up 5 in volume in 2009. Some analysts are even more pessimistic: those of Royal Bank of Scotland expect a fall in sales of 9...

"The global economic slowdown affect both sales in mature markets and in emerging countries," agrees Gartner. If, in regions such as Africa or the India, where only about a quarter of the population only has a phone, the application should continue to be drawn by the original equipment, in the more mature countries, renewal market could, falter. However, this segment represents more than 60 of global sales, according to HSBC. Beyond the stagnation of purchasing power, Gartner note that European customers are less likely to change mobile as they are more often locked up in packages of 18 or 24 months. In the countries of Asia, where operators subsidise less mobile and grow customers to long packages, the research firm found that replacement cycles are elongated from 4 to 8 months.

At the time, next year, "to share in the Middle East and Africa, where we expect a timid growth of 2, all regions should register a decline in sales", said Royal Bank of Scotland. Mobile sales should plunge from 19 in Europe, 19 per cent in Latin America and 8 in the United States. Even China expected a decrease of 2...

The crisis, manufacturers will strive to limit the impact on their profitability. "They will have to reduce their costs and reduce their production tool," said Neil Mawston of Strategy Analytics. Surprised by the extent of the downturn, Nokia will unveil its savings measures on 4 December. Deficit, both Sony Ericsson and Motorola have already cut to the heart: the first will remove 2,000 jobs (17 of the population), while the second has the restructuring plans since almost two years.

But this will not suffice. "To survive the downturn, the manufacturers shall work hard to pick the pockets of growth", says Strategy Analytics analyst. Two are clearly identified: the segment of mobile at very low prices for developing countries and the very high range, with "smartphones", which is expected to grow further by 35 in 2009.

Not the right to the error

But all manufacturers are not the same weapons. This means that all will not be affected in the same way by the crisis. "Nokia is well positioned with a highly efficient supply chain and a wide range of terminals," said Neil Mawston. According to him, the Chinese Huawei and ZTE could also take their advantage of playing at the bottom of range. Apple, RIM or the Taiwanese HTC, their low volume and their positioning on the multimedia mobile should enable them to better absorb the crisis.

Little present in the mobile at low prices as well as "smartphones", Motorola and Sony Ericsson appear, however, far more vulnerable. This reversal of the market to fall more than bad for the American, comes down to the fourth world manufacturers. "Motorola cannot simply absorb losses $ 1 billion", is concerned at Citigroup. The manufacturer decided to reduce its range of products. "Given the level of competition, no manufacturer cannot afford to miss a launch", warns Strategy Analytics. Nokia has already lost much land on the market of "smartphones", or new attractive model.