Expensive for the whole of the international community

It is a refrain. But it is in size. The price of a barrel of oil, which yesterday reached its highest historical level, does not concern the international monetary Fund (IMF). Even more than this "third shock" oil tanker is accompanied by perverse little in relation to the previous two crises of 1973 and 1979. The situation is if generator of potential dangers to the global economy that the IMF has devoted And, in a little over a week, just before the spring of the Fund and the World Bank, on 22 and 23 April meetings in Washington, the g-7 Finance Ministers will devote part of their discussions at the outbreak of the black gold.

Certainly, for the time being, higher oil prices has not prevented the world economy from a more than satisfactory growth with contained inflation, thereby helping to maintain interest rates in the long run around their lowest levels. The great finance should also welcomed growth expected this year, around 4.8. Most importantly, they also highlight a better balance of this growth resumption confirms to the Japan (2.8 for 2006) and Europe (approximately 2) as well as a slowdown early notable in the United States. But they will also point the risks threatening this growth.

The first is linked to the international geopolitical situation "extremely tense". Be it in Iraq, Iran, or still at the Venezuela, where the President, Hugo Chavez, recently decided to renationalise some oil fields, the risk of rupture of supply are real. And if the IMF has found a strong rebound of investment of the international oil companies, he also noted that these investments are adequate with current needs. The second risk is that the increase in oil prices a little more hollow US trade deficits. It "directly explains half (about 1 of GDP) deterioration" exchanges of the United States over the past two years, said the IMF.

Recycling of petrodollars

Worse, the producing countries, in contrast to the past, where some have tended to them, recycle their petrodollars in financial markets. They thus help maintain interest rates at a lower level in the United States, yet fueling the trade deficit by supporting consumption. "Massive capital inflows are lower the performance of the obligations of the US Treasury, perhaps at three quarters of a point," says the IMF.

It is therefore vital for this last adjustment to the person and that it is "facilitated by action, both in the oil-consuming countries and exporting countries". For producer countries, the Fund recommends an increase in spending in areas having a positive effect on the growth and the standard of living (education, infrastructure...). "These costs should be supported by structural reforms that stimulate domestic supply, in particular non-tradable services and goods," he argues. Countries consumers, it suggested them to fully pass the world prices of oil on the domestic prices of the energy actually reduce consumption. Clearly, it is recommended to China, to follow the example of the Indonesia and the Philippines by abolishing subsidies of fuel prices.

Without this, the high of the US trade balance deficit increases the risk of a collapse of the dollar that would trigger a rebound in long-term interest rates, and perhaps a financial crash accompanied by a recession. Expensive for the whole of the international community.