6 in the fourth quarter after an increase of 0

The French economy will be known in 2009 the highest recession of the post-war period and will have destroyed a record number of jobs for at least twenty years, but the Government still found many reasons for satisfaction in the latest figures published Friday by Insee. Looking first at the whole of the past year: the Statistical Institute has announced a decline of 2.2 of the gross domestic product (GDP). An announcement without surprise, but confirms that the France has experienced a recession well less strong than in all of the eurozone (4 on average) and two times lower than that of the Germany. Finally and most importantly, noting that growth accelerated late in the year, while it patina elsewhere in Europe. According to the first estimate of Insee, the GDP thus grew 0.6 in the fourth quarter after an increase of 0.2 in the third (and not 0.3 as estimated initially) and 0.3 in the second. "It is a good end of the year", welcomed the economy Minister, Christine Lagarde, who "put in place by Government stimulus measures have been successful".

Household morale remains low

The acceleration of growth year therefore was slightly higher than expected by economists (whose consensus was 0.5) and by the Insee (anticipated 0.4 in December). "The outperformance of the France comes once again to a more effective stimulus and more resilient consumption, said Pierre-Olivier Beffy, Chief Economist of Exane BNP Paribas. About 80 of the French stimulus plan was spent in 2009, to which must be added powerful automatic stabilizers. "The traditional engine of the economy has actually not floundered: household expenditure even increased by 0.9 in the fourth quarter, while they remained virtually stable in the previous quarter. "In comparison, the German revival was less focused on 2009 and has failed to revive domestic demand;" "the Italy did not relaunch the Spain prepares to rigour", continues the Exane BNP Paribas Economist.

The France therefore out of the lot. "We were told that we aspired to the crisis at the same pace that the Germany, the figures speak for themselves", is bragging to Bercy. Better still to keep cool heads. "The components of growth show that the recovery is still very fragile," temper Xavier Timbeau, Director of analysis and prediction of the OFCE. Firstly because, before consumption, it is the changes in inventories contributed strongly to the rebound of activity at the end of the year (see chart). A first for more than a year. Companies have continued to release, but much less than before. For Christine Lagarde, it "reflects a gradual resurgence of confidence among entrepreneurs. But "this technical rebound could not reproduce all the quarters," warns Xavier Timbeau.

On the other hand, because consumption has been largely made by premium automotive case-sensitive. The French anticipated purchases of car prior to the reduction of the premium to the 1 January, which will produce a backlash in early 2010. Already, the Bank of France found that car sales had declined by 5.1 in January. Moreover, the return of inflationeven modest - and the end of certain measures of support will limit gains purchasing power this year. In the first quarter, "household morale remains low under the pressure of unemployment on the rise," wrote economists of agricultural credit. "In this context, the progressive withdrawal of State aid will weigh on domestic demand, which looks soft." In addition, our neighbours are also our main trading partners. And, given the lack of dynamism of the European economies, should not expect much of the trade".

Caution is therefore required. "The year 2010 will be spotted high and low", it points to Bercy. The Government table on a growth of 1.4 this year, in line with the consensus of economists. On the other side of the Rhine, his German counterpart provides him, a growth of 1.5.