6 unemployment a government deficit of 3

In a world where the activity is growing in annual rate of 4.5 and international exchanges of 8.5, Europe is an exception, claiming as the continent of soft (1.5 for the twenty-five) and 1.3 for Euroland growth and mass unemployment, with more than 20 million people unemployed. This situation contrasts with the hyperdéveloppement of the emerging countries 10 growth in China, from 8 in India, from 6 in Russia and Brazil but also with the performance of the United States (growth of 3.5 and 4.6 unemployment) or Japan (growth of 2.8) and unemployment at 4.7.

So far, Europe has two opposite faces. On the one hand, there is a Europe conquering, composed of the countries who are reformed to adapt to globalization according to various strategies: liberal in the United Kingdom or Ireland (5 growth) and 4 of unemployment; social-Démocrates as in Sweden (3.2 growth, 5 of unemployment and 4.2 of GDP invested in research and development); corporatist in the image of the Austria (3 of growth) and 4.5 of unemployment; shock therapy of output of communism in new democracies (5.5 growth) or the Franco regime in Spain (3.4 growth, 550,000 employment opportunities per year for an unemployment rate reduced from 24 to 8 since 1996). But, on the other, the continent is still leaded by a stagnant Europe, which focuses around might alumni from the post World War II, which have delayed or refused to modernize their economic and social model: the Germany with 1.1 growth since 1990, a 11.2 unemployment and a public deficit of 3.6 of GDP; the France growth of 1.4, 9.6 unemployment, a government deficit of 3.5 excluding public sector soultes with debt of 67 of GDP; the Italy with a growth of 0.1, 7.7 unemployment, a deficit and debt of 4.1 and 110 of GDP.

However the Germany, the France and the Italy respectively represent 30, 22 and 17 of the economic weight of the euro, which is aspirated in a spiral of stagnation, unemployment and debt. Where the decisive character of the electoral cycle punctuated by German elections in the fall of 2005, the Italian parliamentary elections of April 2006 and the French presidential election of May 2007.

1. The Germany has reinvented itself with the Agenda 2010, which the radical reform programme based on the opening of Rhine capitalism, the liberalisation of the labour market, the rationalization of the welfare state bismarkien, the improvement of the productivity of public services (including by return to 40 hours of weekly working hours) was successful. The price of globalization to forced March of German companies and a severe adjustment of employment, the Germany has saved its industry and restored competitiveness, with the key the reconquest of his place of world's leading exporter. Flipping is effective and recovery is accelerating, as exports boom is extended by the resumption of investment and domestic consumption, while the coalition led by Angela Merkel amplifies the reforms, including through the revision of the Constitution to improve the functioning of federalism.

2. The Italy has a zero, high inflation (4.9) growth, a deep deterioration in competitiveness marked by a fall in its market share World increased from 4.7 to 2.6 since 1995 and a drift of 20 per cent of salary costs since 2000. In addition to exposure to Chinese competition in the sectors of textile or leather, its economy is facing the obsolescence of the model by a fragmented and insufficiently internationalized capitalism, an archaic financial system, many rigidities and protections which are hampering the development of services, of chronic underinvestment in research and development, regulation blocked by the euro which prohibits the adjustment by the devaluation. The fall of the Italian economy accompanies the drift of the political system, the vacuum created by the collapse of democracy human who was filled by the emergence of Silvio Berlusconi, with its cortege of populism "médiacratique" and conflicts of interest. Thus the exceptional stability of the five years of the mandate of Berlusconi went hand in hand with the blocking of reforms with the notable exception of the liberalisation of the labour market, which has created more than a million jobs and reduced the unemployment rate of 12 to 7.7 to lead to a return to the proportional system that threatens to make the country ungovernable.

3. After the civic crash of 2002 and the election jacquerie of the referendum of May 29, 2005, less than four months after the urban riots of last November, the major national crisis the France has a new and spectacular acceleration. And 2007 is said as the ultimate opportunity to emerge from peaceful conditions of modernization, namely a political mandate clear, a reinvention of the French model in open economy, leadership strong and legitimate. Otherwise, the risk of civil war will be maximum in a country that brings together all the elements: economic and social crisis endemic since a quarter of a century. a nation fractured the statutes and the protections the risks of corporations and communities, ethnic and racial backgrounds; the discredit of the elites and ruling class combined with a system policy in weightlessness, both to society and the world of the 21st century; the explosion of the extremism of left and right, with the outbreak of the xenophobic and protectionist passions. Where the cardinal importance of avoiding a new election biased at the end of a campaign truncated and placed under the sign of the lie as was the case in 1988, 1995 and 2002 , to engage in debate on the situation of the France and the strategy genuine reforms.

As the modernization of the Germany is now activated, the future of Europe and more of Euroland depend of the capacity of the France and the Italy to arrest their decline. Voià why it is hoped that the Italian voters will decide and impose a clear result. This is why we hope that, beyond the avatars of the SCE and the endless and sinister agony of the chiraquisme, the French will be able to build in 2006 the great national debate which is the reason for the presidential election and the condition first relief of the France 2007.