8 in the second quarter of 2009 is a deceleration of 7

In the upheavals of the crisis, a myth has appeared in the media: the myth of the euro shield. Without the aid of his protection, we would have had even more serious disasters.

In fact, what we have the euro protected Have we protected the depression of economic activity

The depression of activity, which has found its origin in the United States with the collapse linked to "sub-prime" loans, very naturally started in this country. But this depression is extended almost instantaneously to the euro area. While US economic growth rate of 2.9 in 2007, he fell to 4.8 in the second quarter of 2009, is a deceleration of 7.7 points of GDP. The fall activity has been comparable in the euro area, since the rate of growth of GDP rose from 2.7 in 2007 to 4.8 in the second quarter of 2009, is a deceleration of 7.5 points of GDP. Similarly, the increase in unemployment was also high in the euro area than in the United States. While the rate of unemployment in the United States rose from 7.1 of the active population in 2007 to 9 in July 2009, i.e. an increase of 1.9 points, it has increased during the same period by 2 points in the euro area, from 7.5 to 9.5.

Thus that the euro has been in no way a shield against depression came to the United States.

But this simple observation is not enough to discourage proponents of the myth of the euro shield. To extol the virtues of the euro, they are not not in the real economy, but to the fiction economy, i.e. what they imagine that it is would be passed if the euro had not existed. And to say that, in his absence, monetary storms have would be slaughtered on Europe.

What would it happened European currencies is would probably depreciated against the dollar, but in a maximum of 20, which would have brought back to their parity against the dollar purchasing power. The book, which has lost 20 of its value against the dollar during the crisis, has set the maximum limit of this depreciation for at least two reasons: firstly because the financial sector there is a much more important than in other European countries, then because the English banks have had a management much more adventurous than that of most European banks. Moreover, no doubt, we would have attended depreciation of currencies European to the mark, insofar as all European economies have left to dig a gap of considerable competitiveness to the German economy.

Of course, it is never desirable to let its currency depreciate, since this analysis as a loss of power purchase externally. But it is not nor desirable as a currency is overvalued, since this causes a loss of activity. Our currency, i.e. the euro, as the current of the France currency, is clearly overvalued. It is overvalued compared with the competition of German products which we face everywhere in Europe. And it is overvalued against the dollar and the currencies that are linked.

In these conditions, the crisis in the absence of the euro from causing disasters, would have to restore our competitiveness with the Germany and the external countries in Europe, with the positive effects that would have resulted for our economic activity.

To promote the euro, his supporters had launched the myth of the euro growth factor. In terms of growth, the euro area displays the miserable score to be among large economic spaces, one who knows the most mediocre growth. Now that the myth of the euro growth factor, is inheriting the myth of the euro shield. Instead of appealing to the tomorrow singing, play on the fears. In truth, with the exception of the Germany, the countries of the euro area, and particularly those bordering the Mediterranean, doivent have only a single priority: impose a radical change in the governance of the euro, which place growth at the heart of monetary policy. Otherwise, they must have the imagination and the courage to create a new system of Exchange in the European Union.