In this table Beijing retains as little shortterm risk

The masters of Feng Shui are often wrong. Analysts also. Many had predicted, just a year ago, on the eve of the entry of the countries dans the year of the ox, the engagement of a dangerous sequence for China who would have to live in a few months, a collapse of its exports doing live tens of millions of workers, a sharp growth slowdown and the difficult twentieth anniversary of the Suppression of the riots in Tiananmen Square. Twelve months later, the country is about to confirm a 2009 growth close to 8.5, exceeding the objectives defined by the Communist Party, and has already declared that it had become, in the Germany, the exporting power of the planet.

Tens of millions of migrants, curtly dismissed workers before the spring, have, without noise, survived the crisis and often found a place in the industries supported by the enormous stimulus plan to 4,000 billion yuan (400 EUR) implemented by the Government. Young graduates who found employment remained wisely with their parents. Already, 2010, and the year of the Tiger, which starts on February 14, is presented as a cycle of success and enthusiasm.

China will this year, double the Japan as the second largest economic power on Earth, behind the United States. Think-tanks Government, like the foreign experts, prédissent growth 9 throughout the year.

All the engines of growth, ignited in the Emergency Department last year by the Government to respond to the crisis, turn at full speed. Taking the view that the recovery remains "fragile", the authorities will continue to stimulate investment in pursuing the course of their stimulus package. Despite a slight slowdown, infrastructure spending will remain supported and State banks will continue their generous credit to local authorities and public enterprises policy. After taking nearly 10,000 billion (EUR 1,000) Yuan last year, they could still unblock 8,000 billion yuan this year. The real estate sector, seen as key in the recovery strategy will be as blessed.

To support domestic demand, the Government has already announced that he would maintain many of the consumer assistance programs implemented in early 2009. In campaigns, grants appliance equipment will thus be retained and, throughout the country, a slight decrease in the fee to purchase the vehicles of less than or equal to 1.6 litre engine will be always proposed. Passed last year from 10 to 5, it will be this year set at 7.5.

These measures should help to compensate for the recovery of international trade. After a fall of 20 in volume, exports will mathematically start rising in 2010, but will not benefit from a weak recovery of foreign demand. In Guangdong, many private entrepreneurs remain depressed despite the public celebration of national performance. After having weighed negatively on GDP growth in 2009, exports will nevertheless positively help the growth of the country this year.

In this table, Beijing retains as little short-term risk. Inflation, contained by overcapacity and the maintenance of a low level of most of the agri-food prices, does not appear as a concern. The threat of a housing bubble formation is also limited. Prices have certainly flambéed in some cities, but statistics show that the essence of Chinese buyers continue to acquire housing to live there or to place their money in years, not for speculative operations. Without major threat, the Government claims to want to focus in 2010 on the resolution of deeper contradictions that still haunt the nation: the increase in inequality, the establishment of a social security system to unlock the consumption.

With this China, apparent full health, the major developed countries will not miss to call Beijing to be more responsible and solidarity to help the international community to generate a sustainable global recovery. Calls for a wider opening of its market and requests for the revaluation of the yuan will multiply in the West. But these pleas will be not heard.

Exacerbating protectionist rhetoric, the Chinese refusal will generate a thrust of trade disputes, in particular with the United States where the maintenance of a high rate of unemployment, a few months of Congressional mid-term elections (November), will encourage politicians to tough against Beijing.

If China manage well a slight reassessment of its yuan in the coming months, she does will on a selected schedule and to meet the only requirements of its economy. Despite the speech conciliatory Washington, Paris or Canberra which rent the "responsibility" of China in the Affairs of the world's great power, the Communist regime has never hidden that its economic but also diplomatic policies did to the only defence of its own interests and never adherence to values say "global". The sinking of the Copenhagen Summit on climate change and the lack of progress of the North Korean and Iranian cases confirmed.

The party has sole objective the maintenance of its monopoly on power and must guarantee a minimum of "return on growth" to a generally poor population does not dispute his reign as long as she enjoys improved living standards and noted with pride the rebirth of his nation. Any perceived domestic or foreign pressure as contrary to these objectives will be Valses or repressed. The "advice of friends" partners American, French or German have no supported and the last dissidents, even freedom, are hunted down. By accelerating its development, China will not become a "Western" power and the gap of misunderstanding abroad will cease to grow.