This situation of tension on the Germany should not last time

The heads of State and European Government - met today in Brussels including to present their solutions to the debt crisis Greek n ' have not yet spoken, that the markets have already responded: the 10-year Greek yesterday was a dramatic relaxation of 37 points, reviewing briefly below 6 for the first time since nearly three weeks. At the same time, the German Bund was is stretched, yesterday morning, 5 points. On the CDS (credit default swaps", cost of insurance against the risk of default), no significant movement on the rise has been observed, the Greek CDS folding of 43 points, 336 points. "The absence of a solution of recent weeks has added to the uncertainty, said Laurence Chieze-Devivier, strategist at AXA IM. If the Summit ended on a mere probation or a statement, it would be a cruel disappointment.

The direction of the markets for the next few days depends largely on a different output possible crisis. One of the early solutions would be a rescue plan in a European framework, through bilateral loans, either through a contribution of guarantee. In either case, the fate of the Greek debt would be directly related to the "good students" of the euro area: where tensions over the 10 years of German. The Bund had also used safe haven to the stronger of the concern. "This situation of tension on the Germany should not last time." The Greece represents 2.4 of GDP in the euro area, and the Germany 30, said Laurence Chieze-Devivier. If a loan or guarantee is made to the Greece, this would on condition that a plan of rigour and a return to a budget situation under control. It would be a more general movement of relaxation rates in a second time.

The volatility will continue

The other hypothesis, to which do not believe analysts, implies support for total or partial of the situation by the IMF. "In this type of solution, the rate would begin by relax on Greek debt, resumed Laurence Chieze-Devivier.". But at the same time, this decide to endorse the political weakness of the euro area. "The single currency would remain permanently weakened, in this case. What is the message, or the modality adopted, the market will return not to a climate of euphoria. "As a crisis can occur suddenly, as it appease takes time", said Patrick Jacq, strategist bond in BNP Paribas, that the volatility on rates, but on the euro, should persist. "The market is still constituted sellers, but buyers face-to-face." It will still take time before the pension funds, insurance or the sicav return rates. "The single currency would remain weak against the dollar, but without stabilization. "The euro suddenly suffered Greek credibility and speculation," said Franck Nicolas, Director global allocation of Natixis AM. But there are still other lower factors: the rate of indebtedness of other European countries, the absence of economic government for the euro area to resolve this situation, and the slower cyclic relief in Europe and the United States.

On the bond market, the next sovereign emissions will be followed closely. In early February, the Portugal had finally lifted that EUR 300 million on the EUR 500 million a year initially envisaged. "With a relaxation on the Greece will be less negative States arbitrations between sovereign debt and private debt (debt of companies) of a German company, said Franck Nicolas." But in the longer term, investors will need guarantees, including the implementation of the plans of rigour.

The market shares pourrait, also, in a first time benefit from a recovery of investor confidence. But a return to credibility of the euro area does not meet the questions of the moment. One of the main bearing on central banks crisis exit strategies. The Greek crisis has probably delayed the schedule, but the crunch is widely anticipated.