The truce is over. Washington seemed to play the appeasement, in recent months in its fight against the undervaluation of the Chinese yuan. Timothy Geithner, Treasury Secretary, had decided to postpone the publication of a report which could declare this undervalued currency. The objective was to calm to Beijing and to allow him to allow its currency to appreciate without external pressure. The timing seemed perfect, as seen from Beijing, the rising price of raw materials argued that the yuan, which would have allowed to limit the appreciation of the "inputs" used by the industry.
Yesterday, the tone has changed. Accident of the calendar, even Timothy Geithner spoke before the US Senate Finance Committee a few hours after the publication of Chinese trade figures. Verdict: after a period which saw the Chinese trade surplus sharply - cut to the point that China had even experienced a trade deficit in March-, the Chinese export machine seems to be a rude health. In may, the surplus is established 19.5 billion of $ 1.68 billion in April. A performance comparable to that of the month of may, 2008, in which the surplus was $ 20.2 billion. Seen on the American side, the case is therefore heard: as before the financial crisis, Beijing takes advantage of an excessively weak currency. A more tempting conclusion, Washington, that the detailed figures of American foreign trade for the month of April, establish a bilateral deficit with China in strong increase, to $ 19.3 billion.
Hard words
Timothy Geithner, speaking before Senators which some more, now hide their intention charged with China on the currency plan, therefore held the unusually hard words. This time, has said, "the distortions caused by China's exchange rate extend well beyond Chinese borders and make obstruction to necessary rebalancing of the world economy". He took the opportunity to ask Beijing to put an end to policies that disadvantage U.S. firms on Chinese soil.
How will Beijing respond Beyond the political dimension - in monetary matters as in all things, China intends to act according to its own agenda-, monetary equation seems to be complicated. Of course, several arguments continue to argue, in the medium and long term, for a revaluation of the yuan. A stronger currency would allow Beijing to boost its domestic demand, by increasing the purchasing power of individuals and of Chinese enterprises. This would also, notes Hervé Liévore, strategist at AXA-IM, "reduce the current incitement to savings is one of the main causes of the escalation of prices of real estate in China." But it remains that, five months of the year, the Chinese trade surplus remains moderate ($ 37 billion against 88 over the same period last year). Moreover, soaring raw material seems to complete, therefore the disinflationary contribution to a possible increase of the yuan lost its importance. Add to this the concern on the cost of production, in a context where social conflicts multiply in Chinese enterprises. Finally, the current volatility of the foreign exchange market is likely to encourage Beijing to delay, as the decline of the euro already translated for China, by increasing the effective exchange rate.
China and United States drawn on lesechos.fr/dossierlesechos.fr/dossier
Where are found Fatal Bazooka rap superstarHowever it is Pierre Henri Gourgeon the NoThe practice is also risky for the employerVeterans remember Pierre Dux and Jean PiatIn the first half 331 590 operations come from AsiaIndustri Kapital it is no longer candidateA view shared by the CGT who disclaims the Government plan The French long wait recovering to buyPart of the capital is on the stock exchangeA solution would be to generalize the practice of the primary
